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No Verizon iPhone 4, no Apple at CES 2011. No surprise on either front.

Be careful how you put two and two together. With the Verizon iPhone 4 plotted for early 2011 and Verizon’s CEO holding a keynote at CES in January 2011, some predictors just couldn’t help themselves: Verizon, and not Apple, will introduce the Verizon iPhone during the keynote. Because, you know, Apple allows other companies to introduce Apple products all the time. Or Apple CEO Steve Jobs will secretly make an appearance during the keynote to introduce the Verizon iPhone himself. Because when Apple said it was done with all trade shows, it meant all trade shows except for this one random exception. And because even though Apple figured out it can get more buzz (and on its own schedule) by holding its own press events to launch products than it can get from any keynote slot at any tech conference, it’s going to go ahead and introduce the Verizon iPhone in a conference keynote room packed with dyed in the wool tech geeks who irrevocably believe that geek platforms like the Android are the future. So you can see why… actually, no, come to think of it, there’s no way to explain how anyone could have though the Verizon iPhone was coming at CES.

And yet until today, that was one of the prevailing theories in geek tech pundit land. No matter the lack of an explanation for how or why the Verizon iPhone 4 would turn up at CES, those who really, really wanted it to be true were pushing the theory nonetheless. Now something has changed, however, and all the sudden that Verizon keynote is about what logic dictated it would be about all along: the Verizon Droid lineup. Most of the world, even among those who use an Android phone, have little interest in hearing about the Android platform. Most Droid users are doing so just to bide their time until the Verizon iPhone rolls out. But if you want to find one room of people who view the Droid and the iPhone in the exact opposite manner, it’s the keynote hall at a geek-themed tech conference. Of course that keynote will be all about the Droid.

Of course it’ll likely be one of the last times Verizon publicly pushes the Droid in any meaningful way, as the next Verizon related product to come to market will in fact be the Verizon iPhone. It’ll immediately become Verizon’s flagship product, and none but the geeks will even remember the Droid exists. But that’ll come later, as Apple decides to hold its own press event, on its own time, in its own building, with its own invitees. Verizon’s CEO will likely be there standing alongside Steve Jobs in support, with both men cheerfully acting as if that whole Droid thing never happened, acting as if Verizon never went on TV and called the iPhone a misfit toy, acting as if Verizon hadn’t spent the past year bleeding customers over the lack of a Verizon iPhone 4. None of the past will matter at that point, as “Verizon iPhone” will become the biggest headline either company will see in the first quarter of 2011. But first, you’ll have to sit through one last keynote in which Verizon’s CEO panders to the uber-geeks in the room with one more round of Droid wanking. Here’s more on the Verizon iPhone.